For a long time, fuel vehicles have been the main force in the automobile industry. However, with the emergence of problems such as increasing environmental pollution and the gradual depletion of petroleum resources, new energy vehicles have begun to become a new growth point in the automobile market. Against the background that automobile enterprises continue to expand production capacity to seize the future market, the problem of overcapacity has begun to emerge, and the negative impact of new fuel vehicle production capacity on the industry and market has once triggered discussion.
Recently, a piece of news has pushed fuel vehicle enterprises to the cusp again. Nian Yong, director of the Industrial Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, recently stated that relevant departments are currently drafting the *Opinions on Improving the Management of Automobile Investment Projects*. The content includes prohibiting the approval of new investment projects for traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers, strictly controlling the expansion of traditional fuel vehicle production capacity by existing automobile enterprises, and strengthening the monitoring, analysis and early warning of automobile production capacity.
That is to say, apart from the fuel vehicle factories that have been approved for construction, there will be no new factories producing fuel vehicles in the future, and the production capacity of existing fuel vehicle factories will be strictly controlled. You should know that "production capacity" is an important factor to measure the strength of an automobile enterprise and guarantee its sales volume. Controlling the production capacity of fuel vehicles is tantamount to holding the throat of automobile enterprises.
The signal of "restricting fuel vehicle production capacity" is becoming increasingly obvious
This is not the first time the government has released the signal of "restricting fuel vehicle production capacity".
On December 20 last year, the State Council issued the *Catalogue of Investment Projects Approved by the Government*. The Catalogue particularly emphasizes that in principle, new traditional fuel vehicle manufacturing enterprises will no longer be approved, and the healthy and orderly development of new energy vehicles will be actively guided. In addition, according to the *13th Five-Year National Strategic Emerging Industry Development Plan*, the new energy vehicle industry is one of the eight strategic emerging industries clearly defined by the state during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.
Meanwhile, last year, 13 automobile enterprises including Shuanghuan and Qingling had their passenger vehicle production qualifications revoked by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. This means that the automobile industry has started the process of de-capacity.
Ten years ago, when China's annual automobile production and sales scale was still less than 8 million units, the National Development and Reform Commission had already included the automobile industry in the list of "overheated industries". Today, China's annual automobile production and sales scale exceeds 28 million units, more than three times the size back then.
Based on the signals released by the government, it is not difficult to draw such a conclusion: promoting the transition from high-pollution, high-emission traditional fuel vehicles to zero-emission or low-emission new energy vehicles is already the only way for the automobile industry.
"The state's restrictive policies on fuel vehicles are an important guideline for the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry. New energy vehicles represent the future development direction of the automobile industry, and traditional automobile enterprises should actively expand their new energy vehicle business," said Zhang Juan, deputy director of the Research Department of China Electric Vehicle 100 People Association.
Automobile enterprises struggling between fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles
All kinds of signs show that the future automobile market must belong to new energy vehicles, but the status and influence of fuel vehicles still make many automobile enterprises reluctant to step away. Although the policy does not approve the establishment of new enterprises, it does not mean that existing enterprises cannot expand production capacity. In fact, many domestic traditional automobile enterprises are still expanding production capacity at present.
In October last year, Honda announced that it would build a new Dongfeng Honda passenger vehicle factory in Wuhan City, planning to put it into operation before the spring of 2019. After the completion of the factory, Honda's production capacity in China will increase by 20%. GAC Passenger Vehicles will build the GAC self-owned brand Xinjiang project in Urumqi, with a total investment of about 1.6 billion yuan, which will be completed in two phases. In addition, there are many other automobile enterprises that are accelerating the expansion of production capacity of their fuel vehicle factories.
The reason why automobile enterprises are reluctant to leave the "fuel vehicle" field is that on the one hand, fuel vehicles play an important role in the market, and on the other hand, the demand for them is still strong. In contrast, although new energy vehicles have received strong policy support and publicity, their popularization has been affected due to their late appearance and the imperfect related supporting facilities such as charging piles. At the same time, the development progress of new energy vehicles of various automobile enterprises is inconsistent, and some enterprises' technologies are not particularly mature, so a period of transition is still needed.
"The transition from oil to electricity is a very long process, and it involves a very wide range. The news that the National Development and Reform Commission strictly controls fuel vehicle production capacity seems strict, but it is not a one-size-fits-all approach. It only prevents automobile enterprises from expanding fuel vehicle production capacity, not stopping the production of fuel vehicles," said Zhong Shi, an independent automotive writer and industry analyst, in an interview.
Zhong Shi also said that the market still needs fuel vehicles at present, but "there is demand" does not mean that fuel vehicle production capacity can be expanded, and "new energy vehicles are the general trend".
New waves arise in the new energy vehicle market
To promote new energy vehicles, California, the United States has stated that it may ban the sale of traditional fuel vehicles in 2030. The German Bundesrat has passed a resolution that fuel vehicles will be banned from driving on the road in the future. At the same time, Germany will negotiate with the European Union to promote this resolution to the whole Europe.
Although China's new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly in recent years, there is still a large gap compared with the progress of new energy vehicles in some European and American countries. Some self-owned brands including BYD, Changan and Chery have achieved certain results in the field of new energy vehicles by accelerating research and development and increasing investment, so as to accelerate the narrowing of the technological gap with internationally renowned automobile brands.
Against the background that the government has repeatedly released relevant signals, joint venture brands have also begun to lay out the new energy vehicle market. Recently, the news that "Volkswagen and JAC jointly produce new energy vehicles" has become the focus of attention in the industry. Since JAC is Volkswagen's third passenger vehicle joint venture partner, it has also triggered disputes over suspected violation of industrial policies. Once the joint venture between Volkswagen and JAC can pass the approval, other foreign automobile enterprises will take this as an example to find partners and carry out cooperation on new energy passenger vehicle projects. The competition in the new energy vehicle market will also become more intense.
Although China's automobile industry is still in the transition stage to new energy vehicles at present, whether from the perspective of energy environment, policy guidance, or future trends, new energy vehicles are destined to become the protagonist in the market. During the painful period of the transition from oil to electricity, whichever enterprise can limit the scale of fuel vehicles and persist in investment and research and development in the new energy field will become a market leader in the future.